How It Works
A guide to using ShamLock Sports and understanding what you see on the site.
The Picks Page
Each pick card shows everything you need to make an informed decision.
What You’ll See
| Element | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Teams | The matchup with home team listed second |
| Spread | The betting line (negative = favorite, positive = underdog) |
| Pick Side | Which team the model likes to cover |
| Star Rating | 1-5 stars indicating model confidence |
| Predicted Score | Our projected final score for each team |
| Edge | How much our projection differs from the line |
Reading the Spread
- Team A -7: Team A is favored by 7 points. They must win by more than 7 to cover.
- Team B +7: Team B is the underdog getting 7 points. They cover if they win or lose by fewer than 7.
Star Ratings Explained
Stars reflect model confidence based on historical performance patterns.
| Rating | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | Highest confidence |
| ★★★★ | Strong confidence |
| ★★★ | Moderate confidence |
| ★★ | Lower confidence |
| ★ | Lowest confidence |
Important: Stars indicate confidence, not certainty. Even 5-star picks lose. The edge shows over volume, not individual games.
Understanding Edge
Edge is the gap between our predicted margin and the sportsbook spread.
Example:
- Sportsbook line: Team A -3.5
- Our prediction: Team A wins by 7
- Edge: 3.5 points in favor of Team A
Larger edges suggest more value, but edge is just one factor the model considers.
Power Ratings
SBR (Shamlock’s Basketball Ratings)
Our proprietary rating for NBA and college basketball teams. Higher SBR indicates a stronger team performance over time.
EPR (Efficiency Power Ratings) — Football
Our proprietary rating for NFL teams. Higher EPR indicates a stronger recent team performance.
The Rankings Page
View all teams ranked by their power rating.
Free users see:
- Team name and rank
- Current rating
Premium members see:
- Full rankings with trends
- Rating changes (deltas)
- Conference breakdowns
Pattern Dashboard (Premium)
We analyzed years of model results to identify specific betting situations where the model consistently outperforms. The Pattern Dashboard surfaces these insights so you can see exactly where the edge comes from.
Proven Patterns
Betting situations that have shown consistent performance across multiple seasons. These aren’t flukes — they’re documented edges backed by meaningful sample sizes.
Watch Patterns (Hot Streaks)
Situations that are running hot this season. These may or may not sustain, so we flag them separately from proven multi-season patterns.
Special Situations
Unique pattern combinations with demonstrated edges — specific matchup types, situational factors, or conditions that the model reads particularly well.
The dashboard shows win rate, sample size, and ROI for each pattern so you can evaluate the strength of the edge yourself.
Team Picker Records
Our historical prediction record for each team — how the model has performed in games involving that team.
Example: If our record on Team A is 18-7, we’ve gone 18-7 ATS in games where Team A played. This tells you which teams the model reads well and which it struggles with.
This is NOT the team’s actual record — it’s how well our model predicts games involving that team.
ATS (Against The Spread)
We project each team’s score and compare our predicted margin to the sportsbook spread.
- Predicted Score: Our projected final for each team
- Spread: The sportsbook’s line
- Pick: Which team we like to cover
Totals (Over/Under)
Our projected combined game totals.
- Predicted Total: Our projected combined score
- O/U Line: The sportsbook’s total
- Pick: Over or Under based on our projection
Free vs Premium
| Feature | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Daily picks | Handful of 2-4 star only | All stars including 5★ |
| Star ratings | Visible | Visible |
| Pick history | Limited | Full access |
| Pattern Dashboard | No | Yes |
| Picker Records | Basic | Full team-by-team |
| Rankings | View only | Full with trends |
Tips for New Users
- Check the records — Look at historical performance, not just today’s picks
- Understand variance — Even good models have losing streaks. Think in seasons, not days.
- Use stars as a filter — Higher stars = higher model confidence, not guaranteed wins
- Read the FAQ and Glossary — Understand the terms before diving in
Quick Links
- Glossary — Definitions of all terms
- FAQ — Common questions answered
- Betting Tips — Bankroll management and strategy
- About Us — Who we are and how we’re different