Your guide to betting terms, advanced stats, and site features.

General Betting Terms

ATS (Against The Spread)

A bet on whether a team will cover the point spread. If the Patriots are -7 and win by 10, they covered ATS. If they win by 3, they failed to cover.

Edge

How far our predicted margin differs from the sportsbook spread. An edge of 3.5 means the model thinks the team will cover by 3.5 points more than the line suggests. Edge is one factor the model considers when evaluating picks.

Favorite

The team expected to win, indicated by a negative number. Patriots -7 means New England is favored by 7 points and must win by more than 7 to cover.

Juice / Vig

The sportsbook’s commission built into the odds. Standard juice is -110, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. To break even at -110 odds, you need to win 52.38% of your bets – not 50%.

Moneyline (ML)

A bet on which team wins outright, regardless of margin. No spread involved.

Over/Under (O/U) / Total

A bet on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a set number.

Push

When the result lands exactly on the spread or total. Bets are refunded.

Spread / Line

The point handicap set by oddsmakers to level the playing field. The favorite gives points; the underdog gets points.

Straight Up (SU)

Picking the outright winner.

Underdog

The team expected to lose, indicated by a positive number. Bills +3 means Buffalo is getting 3 points and covers if they win or lose by fewer than 3.

Advanced Stats

eFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)

A shooting metric that accounts for the extra value of three-pointers. Formula: (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA. More accurate than raw FG% for evaluating shooting efficiency.

EPR (Efficiency Power Rating)

Our proprietary power rating for NFL teams, similar to SBR for basketball. Higher EPR indicates a stronger recent team performance.

FTRate (Free Throw Rate)

Free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts (FTA/FGA). Measures how often a team gets to the line relative to their shot volume.

ORB% (Offensive Rebound Percentage)

The percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabs. Higher ORB% means more second-chance opportunities.

Pace

Possessions per 48 minutes (NBA) or per game. High-pace teams play faster with more possessions, leading to higher-scoring games. Important for over/under analysis.

SBR (Shamlock Basketball Rating)

Our proprietary power rating for NBA and college basketball teams. Higher SBR generally correlates with better overall team performance.

TORate (Turnover Rate)

Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better. A key indicator of ball security and offensive efficiency.

Site Features

Pattern Dashboard

Visual display of betting trends and model performance patterns. Shows how picks have performed across different conditions (home/away, favorites/underdogs, by star rating, etc.).

Picker Records

The model’s historical record when picking FOR or AGAINST each team. PickerATS shows our ATS record betting on that team. This is NOT the team’s actual record – it’s how well our model reads that specific team.

Predicted Score

The model’s projected final score for each team. Used to calculate edge against the spread and total.

Predicted Margin

The difference between predicted scores. If we project Team A 27, Team B 24, the predicted margin is Team A -3 (or Team A by 3).

Star Rating (1-5 Stars)

Our confidence tier based on historical performance patterns.

• 5 Stars: Highest confidence.
• 4 Stars: Strong confidence.
• 3 Stars: Moderate confidence.
• 1-2 Stars: Lower confidence plays.

Important: Stars indicate model confidence, not win certainty. A 5-star picks can and do lose. Higher stars mean better historical performance in similar situations, not a guarantee on any single game.

Common Misconceptions

“5 stars means it’s a lock”

No. Stars reflect model confidence based on historical patterns. A 5-star pick means the model has performed well in similar situations historically. Even high-confidence picks lose regularly. The value shows up over hundreds of bets, not individual games.

“Higher EPR/SBR team should always be bet”

SBR is one factor among many. A team with higher SBR might still be overvalued by the market. The model weighs multiple factors to generate picks – EPR/SBR alone isn’t a bet signal.

“50% is breakeven”

At standard -110 odds, you need to win 52.38% to break even due to the vig. This is why even small, consistent edges matter.