ShamLock Sports FAQ
Frequently asked questions about our picks, ratings, and how to use the site.
How Our Picks Work
How does your model generate picks?
Our proprietary model projects game scores and analyzes historical performance patterns to identify value. We compare our predicted margin to the sportsbook spread — the difference is the “edge.” Star ratings reflect overall model confidence based on pattern analysis.
What sports do you cover?
We currently cover NBA, NFL, and NCAA Men’s Basketball (NCAABB). Each sport uses similar methodology adapted to sport-specific metrics.
What sports are coming in the future?
We’re actively developing coverage for WNBA, NCAA Women’s Basketball, USFL, NCAA Football, NHL, MLB, NASCAR, tennis, golf, MLS and international soccer leagues, and player props. Stay tuned for announcements as new sports go live.
How often are picks updated?
NFL picks are generated once weekly on Tuesday mornings. NBA and NCAABB picks update each morning for that day’s games.
Understanding Star Ratings
What do the star ratings mean?
Stars reflect overall model confidence based on historical performance patterns.
- 5 Stars: Highest-confidence plays based on pattern analysis.
- 4 Stars: Strong confidence.
- 3 Stars: Moderate confidence.
- 1-2 Stars: Lower confidence.
Does 5 stars mean it’s guaranteed to win?
No. Stars indicate confidence, not certainty. A 5-star pick means the model has high confidence based on historical patterns — but any single game can go either way. Even the best picks lose 40-45% of the time.
Why did a 5-star pick lose?
Because betting involves variance. Higher confidence means you win more often over many bets, not that you win every time. A 55% win rate still loses 45 out of 100 bets. Focus on process, not individual results.
What’s the difference between free and paid picks?
Free users see 3-4 star picks. Paid subscribers get access to all picks including our 5-star premium picks plus full historical data and additional features.
Understanding Our Stats
What is SBR?
ShamLock’s Basketball Ratings — our proprietary power rating for basketball teams.
What is EPR?
Efficiency Power Rating — our proprietary power rating for NFL teams. Similar concept to SBR but built for football.
What is Edge?
The gap between our predicted margin and the sportsbook spread. If we project Team A to win by 7 and they’re only -3.5, that’s a 3.5-point edge. Larger edges suggest more value.
What’s the difference between Edge and Win Probability?
Edge is about margin, not probability. An edge of 5 points doesn’t mean 5% more likely to win — it means we think the team covers by 5 points more than the line. A team can have a large edge but still be an underdog.
Reading the Pattern Dashboard
What does the Pattern Dashboard show?
It visualizes how our picks have performed across different conditions: home vs away, favorites vs underdogs, by star rating, by day of week, etc. Use it to see where the model has been running hot or cold.
What are Picker Records?
The model’s historical ATS record in games involving specific teams for example. If our record on Team A is 15-8, we’ve gone 15-8 ATS in games where Team A played. This shows which teams the model reads well — not the team’s actual record.
How should I use Picker Records?
As additional context. If our model is 18-7 on a team’s games, we clearly read that team well. If we’re 8-14, the model struggles with that team. It’s one more data point, not a standalone system.
Account & Subscription
What do I get with a free account?
Access to 3-4 star picks, basic stats, and limited historical data.
What does the paid subscription include?
- Every pick including our 5-star premium picks
- Full Picker Records and historical data
- Pattern Dashboard access
- Advanced stats and filters
- Priority features and updates
How do I upgrade my account?
Click “Upgrade” in the top navigation or visit your account settings.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Subscriptions can be cancelled at any time from your account settings. You’ll retain access through the end of your billing period.
General Questions
Why does 52.38% matter?
At standard -110 odds (risk $110 to win $100), you need to win 52.38% of bets to break even — not 50%. The 2.38% is the sportsbook’s vig. This is why consistent edges, even small ones, create real long-term value.
Should I bet every pick you show?
No. Use our picks as research and input for your own decisions. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose. No model wins every bet.
How far back does your historical data go?
Our NBA and NCAABB models have data back to the 2021 season. NFL data currently goes back to the 2024 season. We continuously backtest and refine our approach.
Why don’t NCAA game totals always match the record count?
Not all NCAA games have all three betting lines (spread, moneyline, total) available. With 360+ Division I teams, some matchups — especially non-conference games between D1 and D2 schools or smaller programs.