ShamLock Sports Betting Guide
A practical guide to using our picks and thinking about sports betting.
Important: Our predictions are a tool to inform your betting decisions, not a guarantee. Use them as one input alongside your own research and judgment.
Getting Started
Understanding the Basics
Before diving into our picks, make sure you understand fundamental concepts:
- Spread betting (ATS): You’re betting on margin, not just who wins
- The vig: At -110 odds, you need 52.38% to break even — the house always has an edge
- Variance: Even good bets lose regularly. A 55% win rate still means 45 losses per 100 bets
How to Read Our Picks Page
Each pick displays:
- Teams and spread: Who’s favored and by how much
- Predicted score: Our model’s projected final
- Edge: The gap between our projection and the line
- Star rating: 1-5 based on model confidence
- Key stats: Relevant metrics for that matchup
Using Star Ratings Wisely
What Stars Tell You
Stars reflect model confidence based on historical performance patterns. They do NOT tell you:
- That the pick will definitely win
- That higher stars are “safer”
- That you should bet more on higher stars
A Realistic Approach
Think of stars as a filter, not a guarantee:
- 5-star picks are our highest-confidence plays based on pattern analysis
- 3-4 star picks have solid confidence — good value, more volume
- 1-2 star picks have lower confidence — less margin for error
Over a season, higher-star picks should outperform lower-star picks in terms of ROI. But any individual pick can lose.
Bankroll Management
The Golden Rule
Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Sports betting should be entertainment, not income.
Unit Betting
Most serious bettors use “units” — a fixed percentage of their bankroll per bet. Common approaches:
- Flat betting: Same amount on every pick (1-2% of bankroll)
- Tiered betting: Slightly more on higher-star picks (1% on 3-star, 1.5% on 4-star, 2% on 5-star)
Avoid chasing losses or dramatically increasing bet sizes after a bad run.
Track Everything
Members have a personalized dashboard to track picks, ROI, and results. On each sport’s landing page, select the picks you’re tailing using the live tiles — your dashboard tracks your selections automatically over time.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Chasing Losses
After a losing streak, the temptation is to bet bigger to “get even.” This is how bankrolls disappear. Stick to your unit size.
Overconfidence After Wins
A hot streak doesn’t mean you’ve figured it out. Variance works both ways. The model that went 8-2 last week can go 3-7 this week and still be profitable long-term.
Ignoring the Vig
Remember: you’re not playing against 50/50. You’re playing against 52.38%. Marginal bets with tiny edges often aren’t worth the risk.
Betting Every Game
More bets doesn’t mean more profit. Focus on picks where the model sees genuine value. Sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Results-Based Thinking
A 5-star pick that loses wasn’t necessarily a bad pick. A 2-star pick that wins wasn’t necessarily a good pick. Judge process, not outcomes.
Using Our Tools Effectively
The Pattern Dashboard
Check the Pattern Dashboard to see where the model has been performing well:
- Hot on home favorites? Cold on road underdogs?
- Crushing NBA but struggling with NCAABB?
- Strong on totals, weak on sides?
Use this context to inform your own decision-making.
Team Picker Records
Look at our historical prediction record for each team. If we’re 18-6 on Team A’s games and 4-11 on Team B’s games, that tells you which teams the model reads well.
Line Movement
Our projections are based on opening or early lines — we publish picks in the AM in order to make our picks available to subscribers early in the day. We do not rerun predictions, so If a line moves significantly after publication, the edge may have changed or even flipped. A 4-point edge on an opening -3 becomes a 2-point edge if the line moves to -5.
Long-Term Thinking
What Success Looks Like
Realistic expectations for a good betting model:
- ATS win rate: 53-56% is excellent. 60% is extraordinary and rare.
- ROI: 3-8% return on investment is solid. Double-digit ROI is exceptional.
- Losing streaks: 5-10 losses in a row will happen. Multiple times per season.
The Math of Edge
A 3% edge over thousands of bets creates real profit. A 3% edge over 10 bets means almost nothing — variance dominates. Think in seasons, not days.
Why Models Work
Sportsbooks generally set lines based on their own projections and market factors — they’re not always perfectly efficient. When our projection differs from the market, one of us is wrong. Over time, if our model is well-calibrated, those edges compound.
Responsible Gambling
Know Your Limits
Set a budget before the season. Stick to it. If betting stops being fun, stop betting.
Warning Signs
- Betting more than you planned
- Chasing losses
- Borrowing money to bet
- Betting affecting relationships or work
- Feeling anxious when not betting
Resources
If gambling becomes a problem, help is available:
- National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700
- Gamblers Anonymous: www.gamblersanonymous.org
Quick Reference
| Concept | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|
| Star ratings | Model confidence, not win certainty |
| Breakeven | 52.38% at -110 odds |
| Unit size | 1-2% of bankroll per bet |
| Losing streaks | Normal and expected |
| Edge | Long-term value, not single-game guarantee |
| Best approach | Flat betting, track results, think in seasons |